Dune: Part Two's Delay Could Actually Help the Movie Succeed at the Box Office
Dune: Part Two was unfortunately delayed, but this might allow it to be properly promoted and succeed during a better year at the box office.
Dune: Part Two was one of 2023's most anticipated upcoming movie releases. Unfortunately, that's no longer the case, as the film was one of the latest movies to be delayed amid Hollywood's current strikes. It's definitely frustrating for fans who want to see the rest of Frank Herbert's epic novel adapted into a modern masterpiece, especially considering the positive reception to its predecessor. Still, this could be the best move to make for the Denis Villeneuve movie.
The 2021 Dune was definitely a gamble, and this was compounded by its release schedule. The lack of formal promotion for Dune: Part Two is a risk in its own right, and it might keep it from building upon the first movie's success in the way that many expect it to. Add in the performances of several big blockbusters in 2023, and it's in the best interest of Dune: Part Two to move as far away from 2023 as possible.
Denis Villeneuve's First Dune Movie Had a Somewhat Unfortunate Release Date
Released in the last quarter of 2021, Dune was the latest take on the classic science fiction novel from Frank Herbert. It featured an all-star cast, though the movie's real star was Timothée Chalamet. While he was already cemented as an up-and-comer to watch out for, he was far from a mainstream talent, let alone a proven box office boon. The same went for some of the other main stars, with Zendaya perhaps having the most pull with younger audiences. In optimal conditions, the still fairly stacked cast likely would have helped the movie immensely. Unfortunately, theaters were still far from experiencing optimal turnout at the time.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a huge negative impact on theater attendance, with major productions from Warner Bros., Disney and other prominent studios not performing as highly to what they might have made two years beforehand. Given these established intellectual properties weren't quite as successful as previous entries, something more esoteric like Dune had an even bigger uphill battle. While the source material is fairly well known in modern popular culture, the mostly action-less science fiction concept was still a harder sell to mainstream audiences. It's possible many might have expected something closer to Star Wars, which was ironically inspired by Herbert's book.
Altogether, the movie was able to make a little over $400 million on a production budget of $165 million. Given usual Hollywood metrics, this was right around the level needed to truly break even, and that's without factoring in later digital purchases or purchases of the DVDs and Blu-rays. While it was a commendable box office haul given the circumstances, it definitely could have been better, especially with how much audiences seemed to love the movie. This positive reception has convinced some that the sequel can vastly outperform its predecessor, similar to the box office haul of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse when compared to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. If that is to happen, the movie still needs all the marketing help it can get.
A Traditional Marketing Campaign Can Only Benefit Dune: Part Two
While there's a lot more ingrained interest due to the reception of the first movie, it's still ill-advised to release Dune: Part Two amid the current SAG-AFTRA strikes. These prevent the actors involved from doing press tours and making the rounds as they normally would right before a new movie's release. Sadly, this affected the Denis Villenueve movie, which was almost three months away from release with no major marketing. Needless to say, it was for the best that it was delayed, as the lack of all-out marketing might have doomed the movie.
Even with the first movie being acclaimed, the fact of the matter is that Dune: Part Two isn't exactly a popcorn flick for general audiences. It's an incredibly serious sci-fi story, with little in way of quips or other blockbuster elements that more casual moviegoers might expect. While the sequel is set to have far more action than the first movie, this still might not be enough to entice those who find the concept too foreign or even "weird" when compared to the more epic fare of Marvel Studios. Even with increased awareness, the movie definitely needs to be pushed in front of audiences as much as possible, namely via major stars like Zendaya. This is one major way it can really achieve its box office potential avoid experiencing the same financial fallout as some of 2023's biggest movies.
2023 Has Not Been Kind to Major Movies at the Box Office
The two biggest box office hits of 2023 thus far are The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Barbie, with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and the aforementioned Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse also being major successes. Though they didn't reach the exact same heights, several horror movies have also made serious earnings, especially relative to their budgets. Unfortunately, the year has also been filled with big movies that disappointed financially.
Fast X made over $700 million globally, but its incredibly large budget of $340 million meant that it didn't break even. The same went for Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, which had to directly compete with the box office juggernaut of "Barbieheimer" and thus lost money at the box office. Warner Bros. Discovery's The Flash and Disney's Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny were some of the most expensive box office losses ever, with both losing over $100 million for their respective studio.
Given how unpredictable the box office has been, pushing a relative gamble like Dune: Part Two out further is the best chance for the movie actually making money. Moviegoers will have to wait until 2024 to see if the wait was worth it, but hopefully, it at least pays off financially. Most importantly, this might increase the chances of a Dune Messiah adaptation, bringing Herbert's original vision to the big screen.