The 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter is here to trumpet the contenders that will be and the ones that should be

They’re back again, those Buzz people, and here to flag what will — and argue passionately for what should be — in the Oscar conversation. It’s the first round of the BuzzMeter, which we think of as an awards season viewing guide.

Each round, our panel of six veteran film journalists ranks picks in each of 10 Oscar categories, using a points system (most points for top choice) that yields a fair picture of what their roiling, wrestling group mind believes are the best bets. In Round 2, they’ll predict the actual Oscar nominees. In Round 3, they’ll predict the winners.

Think you can do better? Fill out your own slate in our online polls each week for each featured category. This week, we officially kick off awards season (now that the strikes are thankfully over!) with The Big One: Best picture.

The Buzz Gang’s first pass at the best-picture race mixes personal picks and perceived slam dunks by acclamation, this summer’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon among them.

Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” is well out in front, 6.5 points ahead of the two films tied for second place in Round 1, Yorgos Lanthimos’ ferociously feminist Frankenstein fable “Poor Things.” and the UK’s German-language international feature entry, Jonathan Glazer’s study of the banality of evil, “The Zone of Interest.” Martin Scorsese’s Osage murders chronicle, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (which plays a bit like “Get Out” from the point of view of the white folks), is in fourth.

Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” places fifth in initial polling, and as expected, shows up in many of the 10 BuzzMeter categories, leading in two of them.

Panelist Glenn Whipp notes that “Barbenheimer” “dominated the cultural conversation for weeks after their summer release. There’s still plenty more to talk about, though, and the motion picture academy, with an eye toward ratings, will welcome that discourse.”

A second foreign-language film, “Anatomy of a Fall” (somewhat controversially not selected as France’s Oscar entry), places in the Top 10 of Round 1.

Dave Karger says, “I’m also rooting for two of my favorite films of the year which seem to be on the bubble at this early stage: ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ and ‘All of Us Strangers.’ The race would be much more interesting with them in the running.”

This being the “buzzy” round, in which the panelists champion contenders they think deserve notice even if they doubt they’ll receive it, France’s actual Oscar entry, “The Taste of Things” also makes the list. Insert your own joke about that title here, but it features a warm performance by Juliette Binoche that may land the actress her third nomination, having won for “The English Patient.”

Despite this flood of prestige dramas, Claudia Puig says, “This could be the tide-turning year where comedies are finally shown respect by Oscar voters. ‘Barbie’ and the bizarrely funny ‘Poor Things’ are sure to make the cut, as well as the poignant buddy comedy ‘The Holdovers’ and the witty social satire ‘American Fiction.’ ”

Tim Cogshell, meanwhile, stumps for George C. Wolfe’s “Rustin,” widely considered a lead-actor contender for Emmy winner and Tony nominee Colman Domingo. But he also champions a title that may surprise many awards watchers: “The best picture most Black folks saw this year is ‘They Cloned Tyrone.’ One imagines the NAACP Awards and AAFCA will correct this likely academy oversight. And no, I’m not kidding — the best film of the year.

“And I loved ‘Barbie,’ too.”

Among those not receiving votes in Round 1 (some of which had not screened at press time): “The Boy and the Heron,” “Dream Scenario,” “Dumb Money,” “Flora and Son,” “Freud’s Last Session,” “May December,” “Napoleon,” “Next Goal Wins,” “Nyad,” “Saltburn.”

1. “Oppenheimer”

2. (tie) “Killers of the Flower Moon”

2. (tie) “Poor Things”

4. “The Zone of Interest”

5. “Barbie”

6. “Past Lives”

7. “All of Us Strangers”

8. “The Holdovers”

9. “Anatomy of a Fall”

10. “Maestro”

11. “They Cloned Tyrone”

12. “The Color Purple”

13. “Rustin”

14. “The Burial”

15. “The Taste of Things”

16. “American Fiction”

17. (tie) “Fallen Leaves”

17. (tie) “Showing Up”

Two veterans look like slam dunks: Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese. Given the popularity of her film and her previous nom (for “Lady Bird”), Greta Gerwig also looks like a solid pick in a tie at No. 4 with Yorgos Lanthimos, also a previous nominee (for “The Favourite”).

Perhaps surprisingly, comfortably in third place is Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest”; a nomination would make him the sixth director in six years to be honored for a film substantially in a language other than English.

Glenn Whipp says, “Jonathan Glazer has made four daring, distinctive films in 23 years – ‘Sexy Beast,’ ‘Birth,’ ‘Under the Skin’ and, now, ‘The Zone of Interest.” Dave Karger says, “I’m also bullish on ‘The Zone of Interest’s’ visionary Jonathan Glazer, who despite making roughly one film per decade, remains a favorite amongst his fellow directors. He’s had two BAFTA nods but never an Oscar nomination. That very well could change this year.”

Justin Chang thinks Glazer is likely, but says if not him, the academy easily could continue to honor international filmmakers: “This year’s Cannes lineup provides many options: Justine Triet (‘Anatomy of a Fall’), Wim Wenders (‘Perfect Days’), Tran Anh Hùng (‘The Taste of Things’).”

If Gerwig got her roses, says Puig, “The academy would also be acknowledging a woman—which it has only done three times before in its 95 years. (‘Showing Up’s’ Kelly Reichardt and ‘Past Lives’ ’ Celine Song are also highly deserving this year).”

Anne Thompson sees strong candidates on the outside, looking in: “Who gets left out? Bradley Cooper for his second feature in which he stars, ‘Maestro’? Alexander Payne, who may have to settle for cheering on his ‘The Holdovers’ screenwriter?”

Among the notables not receiving votes in Round 1: Blitz Bazawule (“The Color Purple”); Ava DuVernay (“Origin”); Emerald Fennell (“Saltburn”); David Fincher (“The Killer”); Craig Gillespie (“Dumb Money”); Todd Haynes (“May December”); Taika Waititi (“Next Goal Wins”).